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Rethinking Retirement: Why $2 Million Might Be More Than You Need

Rethinking Retirement: Why $2 Million Might Be More Than You Need

By
Jake Skelhorn
August 1, 2025

For years, a common rule of thumb has been that you need $1 million to retire comfortably. But with inflation and rising costs, many people are now targeting $2 million or more. That was the case for Sarah and Ian — a couple in their late 50s and early 60s — until a detailed retirement plan revealed they could retire on far less, without sacrificing the lifestyle they wanted.

In this post, we’ll walk through their real-life case study and how smart retirement planning and tax strategies gave them the freedom to retire earlier, with confidence.

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Meet Sarah and Ian: A Real-Life Retirement Planning Case Study

Sarah (58) and Ian (60) had saved $1.4 million for retirement:

  • $650,000 in pre-tax accounts (401(k) and traditional IRA)
  • $250,000 in Roth IRAs
  • $500,000 in a joint taxable brokerage account

They also had no debt and expected to receive Social Security benefits of $2,800/month (Sarah) and $3,100/month (Ian) starting at full retirement age (67). Their goal was to retire at age 65, coinciding with Medicare eligibility.

Their desired retirement lifestyle included:

  • $80,000/year in discretionary spending
  • Travel in early retirement
  • Possibly helping their adult children financially
  • Keeping their taxes low in retirement

Why the $2 Million Target Wasn’t Necessary

Sarah and Ian assumed they needed $2 million to safely retire. But their financial plan showed otherwise. With $1.4 million, they had more than enough — especially with strategic tax planning and flexible spending strategies.

Here’s why:

  • Their taxable brokerage account had a high cost basis, meaning most withdrawals would incur minimal capital gains taxes.
  • Social Security benefits would eventually provide a reliable income floor.
  • They were open to adjusting spending if market conditions changed.
  • Their projected expenses would naturally decrease with age (a common trend in retirement).

Using a Guardrails-Based Retirement Plan

Instead of relying on rigid rules like the 4% rule, Sarah and Ian used a retirement income guardrails strategy. Here’s how it worked:

  • Baseline retirement spending was calculated to be sustainable based on market projections and expected cash flows.
  • If their portfolio grew faster than expected, they could increase spending or give to family.
  • If the market declined, they could make minor spending adjustments to stay on track.

For example, if their portfolio dropped 30% from $1.6 million to $1.1 million, they'd only need to reduce monthly spending by $500 to remain sustainable — a manageable adjustment.

Smart Tax Planning Made All the Difference

Sarah and Ian’s plan leveraged their account types in a tax-efficient order:

  1. Taxable brokerage account first – With 80% of the value as cost basis, only 20% was subject to long-term capital gains.
  2. Tax-deferred accounts second – Their traditional IRA and 401(k) would be used later.
  3. Roth IRA last – To maximize tax-free growth over time.

This withdrawal strategy kept their taxable income low, especially during the early years of retirement before Social Security and Medicare kicked in.

Healthcare: The Biggest Concern for Early Retirement

One roadblock to retiring before 65 was healthcare. But thanks to their low taxable income, Sarah and Ian qualified for ACA subsidies, drastically reducing their health insurance premiums.

  • Estimated gross income in early retirement: $35,000
  • Estimated premium: $25/month for a silver plan after subsidies

This unexpected benefit made retiring earlier much more feasible — and further reduced their reliance on the $2 million target.

Customized Investment Allocation for Retirement Stability

To protect against market volatility, their new retirement portfolio included:

  • 5 years’ worth of expenses in bonds and cash equivalents
  • The remaining 75% in diversified equities (large cap, small cap, international)

This allowed them to avoid selling stocks during downturns — a key principle in sustainable retirement planning.

Stress Testing the Plan: What If They Retired in a Crisis?

Using historical simulations (e.g., retiring during the dot-com crash and 2008 financial crisis), the plan was stress-tested.

Results showed:

  • They never hit the lower guardrail, meaning their portfolio remained viable.
  • Temporary spending reductions of a few hundred dollars per month were all that would have been needed.
  • Once markets recovered, they could even increase spending by $1,800/month.

The key takeaway? With a flexible, well-diversified plan, even the worst-case scenarios weren’t catastrophic.

When Should They Claim Social Security?

In their baseline plan, both Sarah and Ian claimed benefits at 67. But in scenarios where they retired earlier, they explored claiming as early as 62 to reduce portfolio withdrawals.

Yes, the monthly benefits would be smaller, but the tradeoff was preserving more of their investments — especially valuable during market downturns.

What About Roth Conversions?

They considered converting funds from their traditional IRA to Roth IRAs to save on long-term taxes. But early on, preserving ACA healthcare subsidies was more valuable than the tax benefit of conversions.

The plan is to revisit Roth conversions after age 65, once they’re on Medicare and income-based subsidies are no longer a factor.

Final Retirement Strategy: Retire in 3 Years

In the end, Sarah and Ian decided on a “happy medium”:

  • Retire in 3 years with $1.6 million
  • Maintain flexibility using the guardrail system
  • Withdraw in a tax-smart order
  • Revisit Roth conversions later
  • Keep healthcare costs low using income planning

They ended up needing far less than $2 million — and more importantly, they gained the confidence to enjoy the retirement they envisioned without extra years in jobs they didn’t love.

What You Can Learn from Sarah and Ian’s Retirement Plan

Whether you’re targeting $1 million, $2 million, or another number entirely, this case study shows that retirement isn’t about hitting a magic number. It’s about smart, tax-efficient planning, understanding your spending patterns, and having the flexibility to adapt.

A few key takeaways:

  • Use multiple account types to your advantage
  • Plan your withdrawal sequence for tax efficiency
  • Don’t overlook healthcare planning
  • Stress test your plan for confidence in any market
  • Guardrails > rigid rules like the 4% rule

Ready to Build Your Retirement Plan?

If you’re approaching retirement and unsure whether your current plan will support your goals, we offer a free retirement and tax planning assessment to walk through your situation — just like we did for Sarah and Ian.

[Click here to schedule your free retirement planning session.]

Let’s create a retirement plan that’s built around your life — not just a number.

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